Macao Casinos

Macao will soon surpass Las Vegas as the gambling capital of the world. Which players stand to benefit? This site tracks all the players: Gambling Floor. Here is a summary, sorted by market cap:

• $38 billion - LVS - Las Vegas Sands - Will have the most tables and floor space and plans to be the market leader in Macao with the Venetian by 2006. Modest player in the Las Vegas market.
• $20 billion - MGM - MGM / Mirage - By far the largest player in Vegas; owns almost every major casio you've heard of. Is building a 50% owned MGM Grand in Macao to be opened in 2006. The partner is Stanley Ho's daughter. This one is the closest to a value play within the group. MGM is half owned by a billionaire who would like to buy out the whole business.
  
• $11 billion - WYNN - Wynn - Targeting the higher end clients. Has a primary license to the land straight from the Macao government, and is an early player in the market.
  
• $8 billion - MPEL - Melco - Will be the #2 in number of tables once the "City of Dreams" is opened in 2007. Has the most slots with its Mocha club franchise. IPO was less than one month ago. Has effectively no revenues until City of Dreams is ready.
  

NYX -- Skyrocket to the shorts expense?

NYX (NYSE Group, aka Ney York Stock Exchange) has an enormous short position right now. Nearly 50% of the outstanding stock is on loan by people who presumably think it will go down so they can sell it at a profit for less than the value they acquired it at. Meanwhile, KRAMER is calling this security his #1 growth stock of 2007, and there are many buyers who believe their earnings growth and cost cutting will lead to huge gains over the next year. How will this situation resolve itself, and why is it happening. One article on the topic is here: http://vodiagroup.com/pdfs/RegSHO.pdf. The theory is that somehow, market makers got themselves into a mess and borrowed excessive amounts of the security to keep up with immediate trading demand. If new SEC rules pass, they will be forced to correct these positions within 2 weeks. The other theory is that the shorts are trying to profit from risk arbitrage as the Euronext merger progresses. There is no way to know for sure, but the situation will certainly lead to higher volatility activity in the future. I wish I understood the dynamics more. The most likely scenario that seems easy to understand is if the stock starts going up some more: the shorts will be forced to cover at a painful expense. The other direction is more difficult to resolve. Sure the multiple is high, and Nasdaq (NDAQ) is a serious competitor, but is a $7 billion bet that investor enthusiasm will wane worth the risk?

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